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<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="en"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">donstu</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="en">Advanced Engineering Research (Rostov-on-Don)</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="ru"><trans-title>Advanced Engineering Research (Rostov-on-Don)</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="epub">2687-1653</issn><publisher><publisher-name>Don State Technical University</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.23947/2687-1653-2023-23-1-66-75</article-id><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">donstu-1998</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="en"><subject>INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY, COMPUTER SCIENCE AND MANAGEMENT</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>ИНФОРМАТИКА, ВЫЧИСЛИТЕЛЬНАЯ ТЕХНИКА И УПРАВЛЕНИЕ</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Machine Learning Model for Early Detection of COVID-19 by Heart Rhythm Abnormalities</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="ru"><trans-title>Модель машинного обучения для обнаружения COVID-19 на ранней стадии по аномалиям в ритме сердца</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8190-8472</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Межов</surname><given-names>М. С.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Mezhov</surname><given-names>M. S.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Межов Максим Сергеевич, ведущий эксперт</p><p>115054, Москва, ул. Дубининская, 53, стр. 6</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Maksim S Mezhov, leading expert</p><p>53, Dubininskaya St., Moscow, 115054</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">msmezhov@ya.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0770-9798</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Козицин</surname><given-names>В. О.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Kozitsin</surname><given-names>V. O.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Козицин Вячеслав Олегович, ведущий эксперт</p><p>115054, Москва, ул. Дубининская, 53, стр. 6</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Vyacheslav O Kozitsin, leading expert</p><p>53, Dubininskaya St., Moscow, 115054</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">Vyacheslav.Kozitsin@skoltech.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5468-4079</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Кацер</surname><given-names>Ю. Д.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Katser</surname><given-names>Iu. D.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Кацер Юрий Дмитриевич, аспирант сколковского института науки и технологии</p><p>121205, Москва, территория инновационного центра «Сколково», Большой бульвар, 30, стр. 1</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Iurii D Katser, postgraduate</p><p>30, Bolshoy Boulevard, Moscow, 121205</p></bio><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-2"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff-alternatives id="aff-1"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>ООО «Цифровые технологии и платформы»</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>“Digital Technologies and Platforms” LLC</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><aff-alternatives id="aff-2"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>Сколковский институт науки и технологии</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Skolkovo Institute of Science and Technology</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2023</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>17</day><month>04</month><year>2023</year></pub-date><volume>23</volume><issue>1</issue><fpage>66</fpage><lpage>75</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Mezhov M.S., Kozitsin V.O., Katser I.D., 2023</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2023</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Межов М.С., Козицин В.О., Кацер Ю.Д.</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Mezhov M.S., Kozitsin V.O., Katser I.D.</copyright-holder><license xml:lang="ru" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.</license-p></license><license xml:lang="en" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://www.vestnik-donstu.ru/jour/article/view/1998">https://www.vestnik-donstu.ru/jour/article/view/1998</self-uri><abstract><p>Introduction. Electronic devices capable of collecting individual telemetry data have opened up prospects for preclinical detection of COVID-19 signs. Known solutions involve the analysis of information that is difficult to obtain at the moment. We are talking, specifically, about the blood condition or a PCR test. This significantly limits the possibility of integrating algorithms with wrist gadgets. At the same time, the cardiovascular system as an object of observation is quite informative, the data collection is well developed. The article describes the problem of detecting covid anomalies in rhythm strips. The work aims at creating a mathematical model based on machine learning algorithms to automate the process of detecting covid abnormalities in the heart rhythm. The possibility of integrating the results obtained with fitness bracelets and smart watches is shown.Materials and Methods. The work involved an open technology stack: Python, Scikit-learn, Lightgbm. When assessing the quality of models for binary classification, metric F1 was used. 229 cardiac rhythm strips (сardiointervalographies) of patients with COVID-19 were studied. The presence or absence of signs of an anomaly was determined taking into account the time of the rhythm strip and the intervals between heartbeats. Deviations that could indicate infection were shown graphically. Based on the exploratory analysis results, a list of signs indicating an anomaly was made.Results. As a result of the work done, a mathematical model was obtained that detected heart rate abnormalities specific to COVID-19 with an accuracy of 83 %. The basic features determining the predictive ability of the model were identified and ranked. They included the current value of the interval between heartbeats, the derivatives at the subsequent and previous points of measuring the duration of the heartbeat, the first derivative at the current point, and the deviation of the current value of the duration of the RR-interval from the median. The first indicator in this list was recognized as the most significant, the last — the least. For machine learning purposes, the potential of five algorithms was evaluated: IsolationForest, LGBMClassifier, RandomForestClassifier, ExtraTreesClassifier, SGDOneClassSVM. The normal and abnormal results of observations in isolation trees were visualized. A parameter was set that corresponded to the probability of regular observation outside the norm, and its value was selected — 0.11. Taking into account this indicator, a graph was constructed for the SGDOneClassSVM model. Based on the data set, using the cross-validation technique, the quality metric was calculated. The case in hand was a rhythm strip with a time series of observations taken in one continuous time interval from one person. A step-by-step process of obtaining averaged metric values for each model was described. In comparison, the highest indicator was recorded for the LGBMClassifier model, the lowest — for SGDOneClassSVM and IsolationForest.Discussion and Conclusions. The resulting mathematical model takes up little space in the memory of a mobile device, i.e., it does not impose significant requirements on computing resources. The solution has an acceptable detection quality for preclinical screening of COVID-19-related cardiovascular disorders. The algorithm detects anomalies in 83 % of cases. Four minutes is enough to record a rhythm strip. The proposed scenario for using an integrated solution is concise and easy to implement. Widespread use of the development can contribute to the detection of COVID-19 at an early stage.</p></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="ru"><p>Введение. Электронные устройства, способные собирать данные по телеметрии индивидуума, открыли перспективы доклинического выявления признаков COVID-19. Известные решения предполагают анализ информации, которую сложно получить в моменте. Речь идет, например, о состоянии крови или ПЦР-тесте. Это существенно ограничивает возможности интеграции алгоритмов с наручными гаджетами. При этом сердечно-сосудистая система как объект наблюдения достаточно информативна, съем данных хорошо проработан. В статье описана задача детекции ковидных аномалий в ритмограммах. Цель работы — создание математической модели на базе алгоритмов машинного обучения для автоматизации процесса выявления ковидных аномалий в ритме сердца. Показана возможность интеграции полученных результатов с фитнесс-браслетами и умными часами.Материалы и методы. В работе задействовали открытый стек технологий: Python, Scikit-learn, Lightgbm. При оценке качества моделей для бинарной классификации использовалась метрика F1. Изучены 229 ритмограмм сердца (кардиоинтервалографий) пациентов с COVID-19. Наличие или отсутствие признаков аномалии определялось с учетом времени ритмограммы и интервалов между сердцебиениями. Графически показаны отклонения, которые могут свидетельствовать о заражении. По итогам разведочного анализа собран перечень признаков, указывающих на аномалию.Результаты исследования. В результате проделанной работы получена математическая модель, которая детектирует специфичные для COVID-19 аномалии сердечного ритма с точностью 83 %. Выявлены и ранжированы основные признаки, определяющие прогностическую способность модели. Это текущее значение интервала между ударами сердца, производные в последующей и предыдущей точках измерения продолжительности сердцебиения, первая производная в текущей точке и отклонение от медианы текущего значения длительности RR-интервала. Первый показатель в этом перечне признан наиболее значимым, последний — наименее. Для целей машинного обучения оценивался потенциал пяти алгоритмов: IsolationForest, LGBMClassifier, RandomForestClassifier, ExtraTreesClassifier, SGDOneClassSVM. Визуализированы нормальные и аномальные результаты наблюдений в изолирующих деревьях. Установлен параметр, который соответствует вероятности регулярного наблюдения за пределами нормы, и выбрано его значение — 0,11. С учетом данного показателя построен график для модели SGDOneClassSVM. По набору данных с применением техники перекрестной проверки рассчитана метрика качества. Речь идет о ритмограмме с временны́м рядом наблюдений, снятых за один непрерывный интервал времени у одного человека. Описан пошаговый процесс получения усредненных значений метрики для каждой модели. При сравнении самый высокий показатель зафиксирован у модели LGBMClassifier, наименьшие — у SGDOneClassSVM и IsolationForest.Обсуждение и заключения. Полученная математическая модель занимает мало места в памяти мобильного устройства, то есть не предъявляет значимых требований к вычислительным ресурсам. Решение обладает приемлемым качеством детекции для доклинического скрининга связанных с COVID-19 сердечно-сосудистых нарушений. Алгоритм обнаруживает аномалии в 83 % случаев. Для записи ритмограммы достаточно 4 минут. Предлагаемый сценарий использования интегрированного решения лаконичен и легко реализуем. Широкое использование разработки может способствовать выявлению COVID-19 на ранней стадии.</p></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>COVID-19</kwd><kwd>причины смерти ковид-положительных пациентов</kwd><kwd>осложнения в работе сердечно-сосудистой системы</kwd><kwd>ПЦР-тест</kwd><kwd>доклинический контроль сердечно-сосудистой системы</kwd><kwd>встроенные датчики частоты пульса</kwd><kwd>ритмограмма</kwd><kwd>RR-интервал</kwd><kwd>электрокардиограмма сердца</kwd><kwd>аномальное по продолжительности сердцебиение</kwd><kwd>сердцебиение с аномальным ритмом</kwd><kwd>машинное обучение</kwd><kwd>алгоритм LGBMClassifier</kwd></kwd-group><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><kwd>COVID-19</kwd><kwd>causes of death in covid-positive patients</kwd><kwd>complications in the work of cardiovascular system</kwd><kwd>PCR test</kwd><kwd>preclinical monitoring of the cardiovascular system</kwd><kwd>built-in pulse rate sensors</kwd><kwd>rhythm strip</kwd><kwd>RR-interval</kwd><kwd>cardiac electrocardiogram</kwd><kwd>abnormal heartbeat</kwd><kwd>heartbeat with abnormal rhythm</kwd><kwd>machine learning</kwd><kwd>LGBMClassifier algorithm</kwd></kwd-group><funding-group><funding-statement xml:lang="ru">Авторы выражают благодарность руководству и модераторам открытого всероссийского соревнования профессионалов в сфере цифровой экономики «Цифровой прорыв» за предоставленные данные для исследования.</funding-statement><funding-statement xml:lang="en">The authors would like to thank the management and moderators of the open All-Russian competition of professionals in the digital economy “Digital Breakthrough” for the data provided for the study.The authors would like to thank the management and moderators of the open All-Russian competition of professionals in the digital economy “Digital Breakthrough” for the data provided for the study.</funding-statement></funding-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="cit1"><label>1</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Турсунова Н.Д., Шафигулина И.С., Гребенникова И.В. и др. 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